The New Season - League One

While two teams dominate the build up to League two because of their financial superiority, in League One two teams loom large over the division because of their reputation and history.

Nottingham Forest are favourites. For the third year running. They managed fourth last season, failing at the Play Off hurdle, losing to Yeovil. And its from the Glovers that they have made two significant signings, Arron Davies and Chris Cohen come in from the Somerset outfit, while highly rated left-back finally has opted to leave Leyton Orient, heading for the City Ground. Most high-profile of all signings, though, is Neil Lennon, the former Celtic and Leicester midfielder.

Forest fans will surely believe that promotion is long overdue for a club of their stature.

If, however, those fans are despondent about their plight at any time, they need only to look towards Yorkshire.

Leeds United won the championship in the top flight of English before the Premiership came into our lives. That was 1992. 15 Years ago.

A little while later, under the leadership of David O’Leary, Leeds got to the Semi Finals of the Champions League, losing to Valencia. That was 2001. 6 years ago.

Now Leeds start the 2007/8 season in League One, the third tier of the league, with a 15 point deficit due to their ongoing financial problems. Quite a fall from grace.

A whole bunch of high profile (and therefore probably highly-paid) individuals are out, with just a handful of players now beginning to creep in. Jermaine Beckford might be an interesting player to look out for. While United were struggling at the foot of the championship last year, Beckford was helping Scunthorpe gain promotion by scoring seven goals in 14 games.

Leeds might just be able to claw their way out of their current predicament, but will probably need a good start and a harmonious dressing room. A tough ask.

Doncaster may well see themselves as Forest’s biggest challengers this year.

Sean O’Driscoll made a name for himself as manager of Bournemouth, and now at the Keepmoat Stadium, he has now persuaded one of his previous prize assets to join him. James Hayter looked an excellent prospect with The Cherries, and Donnie’s other buys, including Neil Sullivan and classy midfielder Richie Wellens, rubberstamp their intentions. They want to go up. Finishing above last year’s 11th place should be a given, but they’ll be aiming much higher.

Luton had a dreadful season last year, on and off the field, but Kevin Blackwell has added a series of experienced players who will have the know-how to push the Hatters up the division.

Paul Peschisolido, Don Hutchison, Paul Furlong, Darren Currie and Chris Perry have all played at a very high standard, and all have something significant still to offer.

Kenilworth Road has been a breeding ground for talent over the past few seasons, and the fact that they are supposedly still having money problems beggars belief. However, the sales of Curtis Davies, Rowan Vine, Carlos Edwards, Steve Howard and Kevin Nicholls generated not only money in the pockets of various club officials (especially Mike Newell) but also holes on the team sheet.

I think Blackwell has plugged the gaps reasonably well, and they have a strong chance of bouncing back.

Speaking of bouncing back, Steve Tilson’s Southend will be attempting to do just that. They, though, are among a clutch of teams that will need to hope that the loss of a significant player can be accounted for.

Southend resisted for the whole of last season the urge to cash in on their star asset Freddie Eastwood, but Wolves finally persuaded them otherwise. Swansea came close to securing a play off spot last year, but after selling Rory Fallon to Plymouth, they followed that up this summer by not only letting Adebayo Akinfenwa and Pawel Abbott move on, but their talisman Lee Trundle has gone to Bristol City.

Also a big player down are Oldham. And not only has Chris Porter departed, but he did so to Motherwell for nothing - Oldham having turned down in the region of £750k for him during January’s transfer window.

Rounding off this set of sides is Carlisle. Karl Hawley looked very impressive last season, and he is off to try to fill David Nugent’s shoes at Preston. The Cumbrians were eighth last year and improvement depends on them replacing the threat of Hawley.

All four of the above have a squeak at promotion this year, but they need to prove that selling (or losing) their big players is not a big enough obstacle to them.

I fancy Tranmere to make an impact though. Ninth last year, boss Ronnie Moore is a seasoned campaigner at this level, and with a decent following they will fancy at least a play off spot.

Yeovil and Millwall will possibly be two other teams fancying their chances, but personally I think they both lack a little bit of quality.

Down at the bottom, possibly keeping Leeds company, will likely be Cheltenham. Kayode Odejayi has gone to Barnsley, and a few other first teamers have departed. The Robins overachieved with 17th last year, if they managed that again it’s a huge accomplishment.

Bournemouth are rated as one of the favourites to dip into the bottom tier, largely due to the sale of James Hayter and a few others, but in Jo Kuffour they have a speedy attacker who will cause many defences problems, and they have added experience in Paul Telfer from Celtic. If Darren Anderton can stay fit and influence things, The Cherries might just be ok.

Crewe are finally beginning a season without Dario Gradi as first team manager, so what a huge job Steve Holland faces in stepping into his predecessor’s shoes. They have sold Luke Varney to Charlton, too, so a mid table finish, just as last year, will be more than enough for the Railwaymen, I suspect.

Oh, and they’ve signed Daniel O’Donnell, of whom I’d do a pun if I knew any of his songs.

Brisbane Road has been a hive of activity this summer, with Martin Ling being very busy wheeling and dealing. As mentioned, they have lost exciting full back Matt Lockwood, but several of their signings have experience to offer, such as Paul Terry and Sean Thornton, but survival will still be an achievement.

Of the promoted sides, I fancy Hartlepool, to do the best. Ian Moore is a quality centre forward, and his addition, plus the know how of Danny Wilson, will aid a survival push by Pool, and a happy Mr. Stelling of a Saturday afternoon.

Bristol Rovers will be favourites for the drop, and there hasn’t been too much movement at the Memorial Ground. Paul Trollope is a bright young managerial hope, and if he can work some magic, they may be ok. 20th on goal difference will still be cause for celebration though.

A manager who seen it all is Paul Sturrock. After learning his trade in Scotland with Dundee United and St. Johnstone, Sturrock transformed the fortunes of Plymouth Argyle, and though he’ll want to forget his short tenure at Southampton where he was given short shrift, he has managed to take both Sheffield Wednesday and his current side, Swindon, up.

More importantly for Robins fans, after promoting Argyle and Wednesday, he kept them up. It’ll be a tough task. There are plenty of players that have arrived in Wiltshire over the break, including Sturrock’s former Plymouth charges Steve Adams and Hasney Aljofree. Town’s survival hope rest on their gaffer.

Walsall won League Two ahead of the aforementioned trio, so will feel like they ought to handle the step up. The last time they were at this level it didn’t go too well, they went down. But until the guidance of Richard Money, who was linked with Coventry job, they bounced straight back. Veteran Tommy Mooney may well be the key to scoring the goals to keep the Saddlers galloping along.


Summary

It’s a huge year for Forest. Once again you feel they have the strongest squad, but then so did West Brom in the Championship last year, and it didn’t take them where they wanted. It’s difficult to bet against them, but then they wouldn’t fill you with confidence either.

Luton look a value bet to me. 16/1 to win the title and 5/1 to win promotion seem good odds. I certainly wouldn’t be going with Swansea. They may well need a season get over the loss of Trundle, and I wouldn’t be interested in them at 3/1 for promotion.

Leeds are the wildcard at the bottom of the league. Starting with a deficit of 15 kind of knocks the scheme of betting out of the window. 4/1 to go down and 16/1 to finish bottom? I think they’ll probably get out of it, but a bad start could make these odds decrease rapidly.

If you forced to me to back any one team to go, it’d be Cheltenham, but all four promoted sides will likely have work to do.